Yahoo situation a win-win for investors

Filed under: Forecasts, Good news, Yahoo! (YHOO)

Buying Yahoo Inc's (NASDAQ: YHOO) stock is a bet on Project Panama, its new advertising platform. If it succeeds, the stock goes up. If it fails, Yahoo CEO Terry Semel gets fired and the stock goes up. Therefore, investors are almost in a win-win situation.

In addition, I'd say that the downside risk is protected by the powerful cash flow machine that this company is. For 2006, Yahoo generated< /a> revenue of $6.4 billion, EBITDA of $1.9 billion and free cash flow of $1.27 billion. Any way you look at it, Yahoo's cash generating ability is not going away over night.

For the stock to take off, Project Panama needs to be able to better dynamically link search with advertisers, thereby driving growth again. However, investors will not see this growth until 2Q07. Yahoo stated that 1Q07 will be a transition period.

Waiting for Project Panama to show positive results could prove to be a big risk. If the new advertising platform takes hold the stock might have already discounted the success, making it too late to profit. With little downside risk, I might consider purchasing Yahoo and putting it away. If the new advertising platform begins to work, this stock will quickly come back into favor.

Yahoo!'s forecast makes no sense

Filed under: Earnings reports, Forecasts, Launches, Competitive strategy, Yahoo! (YHOO)

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) said that fourth quarter revenue excluding traffic acquisition cost was $1.228 billion. Wall Street expected a little less. No surprises here.

Yahoo!'s new ad search systems will be out ahead of schedule, on February 5.

But, if the new product will be out ahead of plan, and it is the solution to Yahoo!'s problems with revenue growth, why is the company's forecast of 2007 so poor? The company expects Q1 to have revenue as low as $1.12 billion to $1.23 billion (excluding costs for traffic). Wall Street was expecting $1.26 billion. The forecast for the full year is even worse. Revenue of $4.95 billion to $5.45 billion against Wall Street forecasts of $5.47 billion. Revenue for 2006 was $4.56 billion. So, top line growth could be less that 10%.

If Panama is such a great move for Yahoo!, why will 2007 be so tough?

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Falling in love with PetroChina may cost me

Filed under: Major movement, Forecasts, Blogs, Rants and raves, China, Getting started, Columns, Top Picks 2007, PetroChina Co Ltd ADR (PTR)

At least in the short run, PetroChina Company Ltd ADR (NYSE:PTR) is down for the year and may affect my stock pick average when I report the first month of results next Monday. When I wrote abo ut PTR: PetroChina: Not a bargain, but one to watch for 2007 and included the stock as one of my seven picks for the year, I actually stated "I love this stock," and I cautioned that it was close to an all-time high. After three weeks the shares are down. In the absence of this pick the rest are doing fine; the other six are up so far.

I'm into the stock at $44 and $55 per share in two different portfolios and have made this stock a mainstay that I cannot imagine selling, for reasons that you can read about in any one of my numerous stories on the company over the last eight months. It closed Tuesday at $127.17 per share, up $3.91 but down from $142.12 on December 28, 2006. For the year I still expect PTR to be up, but the slow start is a reminder, and when I look at my watch list there are picks I would have been less emotional about.

I am writing this story not so much about PTR but to call your attention to the hazard of falling in love with a stock. It is an investment, and besides your family, falling in love is a mistake, in particular with an investment because it can cloud your judgment. (This happens with family too, but that's another story.) If you have been involved with the stock market and investing in general, I'm sure you may have heard this before. Success itself can cloud your judgment as well. In the case of PetroChina, the stock has moved progressively higher, even when other Chinese stocks have faltered over the past few years. I am sticking with this pick because of its products and services, business financials and management -- and cautioning all to leave out the emotion when making investments.

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here. Be sure to read You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

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Analyst downgrades 1-24-07: Intel & AMD downgraded over price war

Filed under: Before the bell, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Bad news, Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), Intel (INTC), Advanced Micro Dev (AMD)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Today's list of downgrades were filled with notable companies, including Yahoo! Inc (YHOO), Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD), Intel Corp (INTC) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT).
  • Goldman Sachs downgraded Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) to Neutral from Buy, with a $31.50 target, citing valuation.
  • Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD) was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Friedman Billings following their disappointing quarter. They told clients AMD no longer enjoys a technical advantage and is losing share in the higher margin segments. Credit Suisse downgraded Advanced Micro to Underperform from Neutral, American Technology downgraded shares to Sell from Buy and Caris downgraded shares to Above Average from Buy.
  • Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at American Technology. The firm believes management may not have been conservative enough with their margin guidance and doesn't see an end to the price war.
  • Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • JP Morgan downgraded shares of Continental Airlines Inc (NYSE: CAL) to Underweight from Overweight on valuation.
  • Goldman Sachs downgraded Manpower Inc (NYSE: MAN) to Sell from Neutral.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).
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Todd & Maria-gate Memo: Butch Thomson and the Sundance Kid

Filed under: Management, Television, General Electric (GE), Scandals, Columns, Citigroup Inc. (C)

Yesterday's departure of Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) executive Todd Thomson may have been helped along by his use of Citigroup's corporate jet to fly General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) CNBC reporter, Maria Bartiromo from Asia. This is just the tip of the iceberg. Todd & Maria-gat e Memo will follow the ongoing saga.

This morning's Wall Street Journal [subscription required] reports that Todd Thomson used $5 million of his Citigroup marketing budget to finance a Sundance Channel program which was slated to be hosted by Robert Redford and Maria Bartiromo. [Bartiromo is no longer slated to host this program].

But wait, there's more. In 2005, current Chief Operating Officer Bob Druskin spotted Thomson having dinner with Bartiromo at the ritzy Daniel restaurant while Druskin was hosting a holiday dinner there for his investment banking management team.

Last November, Thomson flew Bartiromo to speak to Citigroup's private-banking clients at luncheons in Hong Kong and Shanghai. He flew with a group of Citigroup employees to Asia, but flew back to the U.S. on the corporate jet with Bartiromo.

After this November incident, Citigroup CEO, Chuck Prince, asked Thomson to stop spending Citigroup money on Bartiromo. Six weeks later, Thomson surprised Prince with The Sundance sponsorship announcement. This prompted Thomson's departure.

This saga raises questions of interest to Citigroup and GE investors, including:

  • After all of Prince's blunders, are Citigroup directors debating his fate?
  • Was GE CEO, Jeff Immelt, involved in approving Bartiromo's $48,000 flight from Asia on Citigroup's jet?
  • Will GE require CNBC anchors to disclose their business relationships with the companies they cover?

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm, a Professor of Management at Babson College, and editor of The Cohan Letter. He has appeared as a guest on CNBC and owns Citigroup and GE stock.

Blair Corp. goes private (with some tips for deep value investing)

Filed under: Deals, Private equity, Getting started, Columns, Technical Analysis

Every week it seems, my grandmother receives a catalog or three from Blair Corporation (AMEX: BL), which markets clothing and home products, mainly to older men and women. I had looked into the stock several months ago, but ultimately didn't buy it, even though it looked quite cheap. It had a yield in the 3% range, was trading close to its book value, and had low P/E and a price to sales ratio that was well below the industry norm. I didn't buy it because it looked like what is known as a "value trap" or, less charitably as "dead money." Read about companies like this on Internet message boards and you'll often find the acronym "POS." I'll leave you to decipher that one. Basically, I saw the stock as being undervalued but without any catalyst in sight to cause it to realize its value.

Today, Appleseeds Topco, a buyout outfit of some kind, agreed to purchase Blair for $42.50 per share, resulting in a 13.29% jump for this typically boring-to-watch stock. Was I wrong to pass on Blair? A look at the company's 5-year chart provides some evidence for my defense. Since 2002, the stock has fluctuated between 25 and a little over 40, and buying and holding the stock (assuming you weren't able to purchase it at its bottom) would have been unlikely to yield superior returns. Had you purchased the stock two years ago, you would have paid only a little bit below what the company was taken out for today. The main risk with buying these de ep value, boring companies is the lack of a catalyst. If "buy and hold" is the mantra for growth investing, "buy and hope" might be the idea of deep value investing. The stock's under-performance for an extended period of time speaks volumes about management. I would even postulate that, most of the time, deep value Benjamin Graham type-stocks (low price-book) almost by definition have poor management.

And I say all this as a big fan of deep value investing, which you can learn more about in Benjamin Graham's classic The Intelligent Investor. To help to avoid the potential pitfalls of this often lucrative field of investing (David Dreman's book Contrarian Investing showed that buying low price-book stocks has historically outperformed the market by a wide margin over the long-term), I have a list of rules to screen out dead money, value-trap, POS's:

-Invest in companies where c hange seems imminent. If a company's shares are undervalued enough, activist investors may swoop in to try to shake things up. Keep track of 13-D filings (using the SEC's Edgar database) to find stocks where someone is accumulating a large stake. Then, research the investor to see what their track record is. Is it someone who has a history of launching proxy battles or persuading companies to put themselves up for sale?

-Look for signs of consolidation in the industry/broader market. When private equity firms are taking companies private at a record pace, many of these deep value stocks (like Blair) are well-positioned to be picked off.

-Look for situations where the management owns a large number of shares (this information can be found in the proxy statement). A manager with a large number of shares will benefit greatly from price appreciation. A manager with a large salary and little equity stake in the company may be happier to milk the company for cash and could care less about the stock price (former Lenox CEO Susan Engel says hi).

Do you have any of your own strategies for avoiding value traps? Post them here and I'll do a follow-up with your tips!

A hedged play on Yahoo

Filed under: Major movement, Earnings reports, Yahoo! (YHOO), Options

Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) opened at $28.34. So far today the stock has hit a low of $28.22 and a high of $28.93. YHOO is now trading at $28.66, up $1.70 (6.31%).

After hitting a one-year high of $35.48 on January 25 2006, the stock slid $12.83 (36.1%) to a low of $22.65 on November 20, 2006. Since then YHOO has been working it's way back up to current levels. Last night Yahoo announced that its profit fell 61% from a year ago, when results were boosted by investment gains, while revenue rose 13%, as it dealt with a major upgrade of its search-advertising system and a management reorganization. Investors were encouraged by the nearing implementation of new software that may help the company increase marketing revenues. The technicals for YHOO have been slightly improving lately and S&P gives the stock a cautious 3 STAR hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I'd consider a March bull-put credit spread below the 25 range.

Vic Schiller is an analyst with attitude at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Schiller owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

Analyst upgrades 1-24-07: First Albany warms up to Sun Microsystems

Filed under: Before the bell, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Good news, Brinker Intl (EAT), Sun Microsystems (SUNW), EMC Corp (EMC)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sun Microsystems Inc (SUNW) and the Telecom Services Sector were the most notable stocks on today's list.
  • First Albany upgraded shares of Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: SUNW) to Buy from Neutral with a $7 target and has increased confidence that Sun can deliver on its 10%-plus operating margin following KKR's appointment to the Board.
  • Morgan Stanley upgraded the Telecom Services sector to In Line from Cautious, citing a positive view on AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) and industry trends.

OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Goldman Sachs added Occidental Petroleum Corp (NYSE: OXY) to its America's Conviction Buy List and upgraded shares to Buy from Neutral, citing valuation.
  • Bear Stearns upgraded EMC Corp (NYSE: EMC) to Outperform from Peer Perform following its fourth-quarter report citing improved execution and a favorable demand environment.
  • Longbow upgraded AK Steel Holding Corp (NYSE: AKS) to Neutral from Sell.
  • Raymond James upgraded Brinker International Inc (NYSE: EAT) to Outperform from Neutral.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).
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Private equity shines a light on SUN

Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Private equity, Sun Microsystems (SUNW), Oracle Corp (ORCL)

Lately, old-time tech companies such as Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) have been making a comeback.

Now Sun (NASDAQ: SUNW) is getting some traction. Yesterday, the company posted a strong fourth quarter, with a net income of $148 million or $0.04 per share, which compares to a loss of $223 million or $0.07 per share in the same period a year ago.

Currently, the stock is up 5% to $5.95.

Recently, Sun did something very unusual (at least for tech companies) -- it got a minority investment from KKR Private Equity Investors, L.P. (Euronext Amsterdam: KPE), the publicly traded fund of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. The investment is a convertible note for $700 million. The interest rate is dirt cheap at 3%.

True, this should help with acquisitions. And by having a KKR board member, there should be access to more deal flow as well as deal-making expertise.

What's more, this may be Sun's way to prevent a possible hostile takeover. Basically, the KKR investment could be a blocking position. Or, if there is a hostile bid, KKR could be the ultimate white-knight buyer.

As for KKR, this may be a sign that the firm is thinking of doing more tech deals.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

Analyst initiations 1-24-07: Morgan Stanley reinstates GM with an Equal-Weight

Filed under: Before the bell, General Motors (GM), Analyst initiations, Level 3 Communications (LVLT)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The only company that topped today's list of initiations was Armstrong World Industries Inc (NYSE: AWI).
  • Oppenheimer initiated Armstrong, whom they consider a relatively undiscovered, asbestos-related post-bankruptcy company, with a Buy rating and $55 target. They believe Armstrong could aggressively deliver its already conservative balance sheet and ultimately repurchase shares.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • General Motors Corp (NYSE: GM) was reinstated at Morgan Stanley with an Equal-Weight rating.
  • Cowen initiated Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ: LVLT) with an Outperform rating.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).
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Sun's results solid, does KKR convert mean acquisition on horizon?

Filed under: Earnings reports, Sun Microsystems (SUNW)

Sun Microsystems Inc (NASDAQ: SUNW) reported a solid 7% increase in revenue for its second quarter, citing good demand for its SPARC chip multithreading servers and x64-based servers as well as the increased acceptance of the Solaris 10 Operating System.

More importantly in the tech world, the company showed strong gross margins, coming in at 45%, up from 43% last year.

Sun generated cash from operations of $153 million and had cash and marketable securities at the end of the qua rter of $4.8 billion, a lot of cash.

However, despite good cash generation, improved margins and a strong balance sheet, Sun decided to go forward with a $750 million convert with KKR. During the earnings conference call, analysts could not figure out why Sun did the deal.

Jonathan Schwartz, Sun's CEO, said the KKR transaction will allow it to better explore strategic opportunities. He added there could be some cross selling opportunities between KKR's portfolio companies and Sun. Analyst did not appear to believe him.

The reality is the only reason for Sun to need this extra cash is to make a sizable acquisition. Despite an improved operating performance, the growth metrics for Sun, especially within the US, are still weak.

Look for Sun to do another big transaction this year.

EMC following positive trading channel

Filed under: Major movement, EMC Corp (EMC)

EMC Corporation (NYSE:EMC) is a leading developer of information infrastructure computer technology. Corporations and government agencies use its RAID (redundant array of independent disks) storage systems, NAS (network attached storage) file servers and associated software to effectively manage large quantities of data. The firm claims the largest storage-dedicated direct sales and service force in the world. A number of major computer companies resell its systems.

EMC surprised the Street on Tuesday, when it announced Q4 EPS of 17 cents (ex-items) and revenues of $3.21 billion. Analysts had been expecting 16 cents and $3.17 billion. Management also guided FY07 EPS to 71 cents (64 cent consensus) and FY07 revenues to $12.7 billion ($12.63B consensus). The news promises to keep EMC shares cycling through a positive, four-month trading channel. The price is currently consolidating near the base of that channel, where oversold CCI, Momentum and Stochastic technical parameters suggest the potential for a rise back toward the top. Correspondence of the stock's 50-day moving average to the base of the channel backs the rebound notion.

Brokers recommend the stock with five "strong buys," ten "buys" and twelve "holds." Analysts see a 21 percent growth rate through the next year. The EMC Price to Sales ratio (2.79), Price to Book ratio (2.71), Price to Free Cash Flow ratio (24.77) and Sales Growth rate (18.63%) compare favorably with sector and S&P 500 averages.

The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 100 and S&P 500 Indexes. Institutional investors hold about 69 percent of the outstanding shares. Over the past fifty-two weeks, EMC has traded between $9.44 and $14.75. A stop-loss of $11.85 looks good here.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.

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Liveblogging McDonald's

Filed under: Earnings reports, Good news, Management, Consumer experience, Competitive strategy, McDonald's (MCD)

As expected, McDonald's Corp. (NYSE:MCD) posted strong fourth quarter results. The market, however, seemd to react to the company's annoucement that it plans to invest $1.9 billion this year on opening new stores and revamping existing ones. Investors always react negatively when a company says it plans to put money back into the business.

9:30 a.m. -- I log onto the site for the call which features a picture of a salad. I know they are big sellers but has anyone actually seen anyone at McDonald's order a salad. Maybe I go there at the wrong times. Then I quickly realize that I am there one hour too early. I immediately secure a cafeinated beverage to wake up.

11:30 a.m. -- The call actually is starting. It's a pity since I am digging the bouncy, upbeat jingles. Finally, a company knows how to program hold music. There are pop, hip-hop and Spanish language versions of the jingle. Darn, it's over

11:31 a.m. -- Usual disclosures.

11:35 a.m.-- CEO Jim Skiner. I am pleased to report that 2006 was an outstanding year for McDonald's., Our revenues reached record high. We returned 5 billion to shareholders. Total shareoholder return was 35 percent. "As I said, an outstanding year."

Plan includes financial discipline. Strategy is growing by not just getting bigger. This year, we plan to open 800 new restaurants. 200 US., 150 Europe, 375 Asia. Invest $1 billion in existing restaurants. Our committment is to return at least $10 billion to shareholders. Our plan to win will continue to be operational roadmap.

Continue to add new menu items at breakfast and in chicken sandwiches in US.

1137; IN china. our key growth market. We have the most menu choices amongst our menu set. The drive through is abssolutely critcal to our long-term development. We'll also market breakfast nationally.

.. Our system has never been more alligned. McDonald's is a system that succeeds because we are a franchising org., We are committed to right balance of franchises versus owners.

Matthew Paull, CFO

Clearly we've reached a point where customers and investors agree that McDonalds is better. HIghest operating margins since 2000. US margins were up 30 basis points. The US fourth quarter margin increasis is especially meangingful because there was profit sharing in the year earlier period.

11:41. I can assure you that G&A control is a high priority for the management team. Total shars acquired in 06 were 98 million.

Lookin. The headwinds created by our old compensatipn programs (options) aren't nearly as strong. The company is granting fewer options.

We expect future buybacks to yeiled a meaningful decline in share count because of fewer options.

IN each of our major market in which the legal market is conducive to ranchises., They want less than 30 percent tob ecompany owned. More franchises in U.K. and Canada.

Licensing,

Given our menu . Beef and Chicken are clearly the primarily drivers. The company sees beef down, Chicken up in US, both up in Europe.

"WE are determined to get better at being better at everything we do." Gosh that's vague.

11:47. UBS Congrats. Why do analysts do that? It's annoying. Asks questions about UK market.

Paull: We do see positive signs In Europe.

Goldman: Development license agreements. Timing of agreements? IS the proceeds included in the $5 bln returned to shareohlders

Paull: Have'n't figured out what to do with the proceeds. WE are very, very confident that we will get this done.

"We''re not going to get into specifrics"

Citi: Latin America., company units. Why more company stores in Latin America?

MCD: We had some litigation with our franchiesses .We are through all of that now. We are doing a lot better in Latin America. Our margins improved dramticaly down there.

BofA: Menu price increase going into 07? Competition for breakfast?

Skinner: Breakfast. We're the clear leader. WE are very very proud of our breakfast items. Our delivery at breakfast will continue to improve. WE are focussed on it.

CFO: We've tried to raise prices at slightly below food away from home . If you look at 07, food away from home index, 3.6, slightly ahead from 2006. Certain restaurant companies want to get ahead of minimum wage pressure

For the last four years, when we raised prices to recover prices. saw guest count rise, "speaks to power of brand."

Bear: Plans for Coffee in 2007? US Minimum wage increase, any cost pressure?

Skinner: We have a number of thing in test that include speciality coffees, premium burgers. Breakfast burritos. The coffee has done very, very well for us.We are looking at the potential for speciality coffee in 07, Obviously, we will continue to. There is always going to be some pressure when the minum wage increases., We are paying above the minimum wage now. We don't expect to have a huge pressure with this. MCD pays above minimum wage

Lehman: Debt level?

CFO: WE are about 8.5 bln at the year end. expect to stay there. the average cash balance in 096,

Wachovia: POS system. Improvements?

Skinner: Yes there have been improvements . We still have huge upside potential. We've improved on the accuracy and yet we are not there. WE won't be satisfied. We've made progress but we continue work hard on this. It's a journey not a destination.

CFO: AT the end of 06. POS was in 7,000 in US. Most weren't in US.

Oyster Capital: Extended hours?

CFO: We're very happy with extended hos in the US, Now its expanding to other geographies. We're very satisfied with the margins that we get. The strategy is starting to spread to Asia.

CIBC: How many countries have above 30 percent corporate program?

CFO: Not many are like UK and Canda. Franchising laws and China and Russia aren't there

DB: traffic pickup because of ecoli scare

CFO: Mcdonald's looked into this and found no effect.,

MS: Gift card activations?

Skinner: Had an uptick. Had more sales of giftcards this year. Don't record them until they are spent. We expect them to be better.

Paull: WE adopted this better not just bigger. Internally, we had doubts ourself. WE ar efairly convinced that it is right for us. The specifics. WE are basically goign to be putting our money where are mouth is.

Skinner: Right peoiple are in the right place.,

No more Monsanto lattes at Starbucks

Filed under: Products and services, Consumer experience, General Electric (GE), Starbucks (SBUX)

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/106/268660414_40fff455f5_m.jpgCoffee served at Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) locations in the American West and Northeast will soon lack a certain something -- no, it's not caffeine, thank God! -- but you won't be able to detect the loss by taste. That something will be recombinant bovine growth hormone (rBGH), a Monsanto (NYSE: MON) product. The hormone is given to about a third of the country's dairy h erd in order to increase per-cow milk production.

Seattlepi.com quotes a spokesman of the Washington Dairy Products Commission as saying that the move will increase production costs for the farmers, which will be passed along to Starbucks, thereby putting pressure on drink prices. In the same report, Starbucks spokesman Sanja Gould states that this is the first phase of a nationwide program to eliminate rBGH at all Starbucks.

Monsanto markets rBGH, the top-selling dairy herd drug, under the name Posilac. Advocacy groups have suggested a link between rBGH and cancer in humans, although studies have not proven such. Nonetheless, many consumers prefer to avoid milk produced with the drug, which is no doubt the driving factor in Starbucks' decision.

Monsanto has compiled a number of articles supporting their claim that Posilac is a safe product of vital importance to the milk industry. The implication of the cited articles is that the Starbucks decision is market-driven, by a market convinced of a health threat that doesn't exist.




Cheesecake Factory going private?

Filed under: Private equity, Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)

It seems that every era of investor euphoria ends with a deal that is regarded as outrageous in retrospect. The leveraged buyout boom of the 1980s ended with the ill-advised RJR Nabisco deal. The Internet stock bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s ended with the merger of AOL and Time Warner.

While it is just speculation at this point, I have a prediction: If the Cheesecake Factory Inc. (NASDAQ:CAKE) is taken private at a substantial premium to its current market cap of $2.1 billion, it will be looked at as a symbol of LBO-madness in the years to come.

Rumors of a leveraged buyout of CAKE sent the shares up as much 7.6% yesterday. But according to Marketwatch, analyst Bryan Elliott at Raymond James puts "no more than a 10% probability on a Cheesecake Factory LBO occurring in the near term."

One of the top-rated restaurant analysts, Eric Wold of Merrimac Cohan Ford, who has a sell-rating on the chain, echoed similar sentiments, saying the possibility is low as CAKE's growth rate -- "significantly slowing."

So it doesn't sound like the experts are bullish on the prospect of a CAKE LBO. Perhaps this is a sign that sanity still reigns in the private equity market ... for now.

Adelphia challengers holding up Time Warner Cable

Filed under: Deals, Law, Time Warner (TWX), Comcast Cl'A' (CMCSA)

There have been reports -- starting last week and ongoing this week -- that the real debut of Time Warner Cable (TWC-TWCAV) under the "TWC" ticker is being held up by challengers to the Adelphia bankruptcy plan. The plan was originally approved by the main creditors and by Time Warner, Inc. (NYSE: TWX) and by Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA-CMCSK). But now, the issue at stake is that a US District Cour t judge has suspended when the bankruptcy court's approval takes effect until the decision can be reviewed by a higher court.

Associated Press has covered this and several news outlets have picked up the story. (Here is the story by Newsday, the story from Cantonrep.com, and a more detailed story here.)

What is most important here is that minority holders are holding up the launch of Time Warner Cable. The other problem is that both Time Warner and Comcast have already made their swaps and already completed the beginnings of the integration plans. This last ditch effort by the group trying to block this deal could come with a hefty price tag. Ultimately they can't stop this and it's a done deal, but they can perhaps net themselves some extra cash in the final hour.

Continue reading Adelphia challengers holding up Time Warner Cable

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Dominion Resources attracts private equity

Filed under: Private equity, Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs Group (GS)

Dominion Resources Inc. (NYSE: D) is making some big changes. The company wants to unload about 83% of its oil and gas production business. The reserves are in areas such as New Mexico, the Permian Basin in Texas, the Gulf of Mexico and Canada.

Such a deal will carry a heavy price -- the estimate is $15 billion or so. But of course there is a ton of cash in the private equity sector and it looks like Dominion will have no trouble finding buyers.

According to the Wall Street Journal, one group includes firms like Madison Dearborn Partners, Warburg Pincus, First Reserve and Carlyle Group. And it looks like Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS0) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) will also join the party.

Aren't these companies arch enemies?

Yes they are. But big-time deals require teamwork. Besides, Dominion's assets are top-notch and should be a strong source of ongoing cash flow generation as well as tax benefits.

And the interest in Dominion is another sign that private equity thinks that over the new few years energy prices should increase.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

State of the Union: Big hat, no cattle

I'm no Texan but I've heard they have an expression for people who puff out their chests to hide the emptiness inside: "Big hat, no cattle." This phrase came to mind in reviewing last night's State of the Union (SOTU) address.

How so? After the 2004 election, President Bush announced that he had earned political capital and now he was going to spend it. In 2005 he invested that capital in a failed effort to reform Social Security with private accounts. At last year's SOTU, Bush proposed 14 initiatives, only one of which was achieved. And yesterday, Bush tried to change the subject at the beginning of his speech by focusing on domestic issues. He deferred discussion of the elephant in the room -- Iraq -- reiterating the surge speech he made a few weeks ago which, according to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll garnered support from 22% of voters. 65% of Americans view Bush as no longer relevant -- hence "Big hat, no cattle."

I won't dwell on Iraq, except to refer to this post arguing for a way to accelerate a solution. On the plus side, I was pleased that Bush initiated a debate on some key domestic issues -- including energy independence and health care -- but disagree with the solutions he proposed.

Continue reading State of the Union: Big hat, no cattle

Money Shots: A not-so-comcastic award

Filed under: Other issues, Consumer experience, Comcast Cl'A' (CMCSA)

CNNMoney.com's Business 2.0 has singled out Comast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) for one of its "101 Dumbest Moments in Business" awards, giving it "Worst Moment in Customer Service" honors.

The actual moment -- which became an Internet sensation -- occurred when savvy customer Brian Finkelstein secretly filmed a Comcast cable repairman attempting to fix his modem... while asleep.

You can't buy that kind of publicity.

B. Brandon Barker is the author of Operation EMU.
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Corning on the move

Filed under: Earnings reports, Good news, Corning Inc (GLW), Options

Corning Incorporated (NYSE: GLW) opened at $20.21. So far today the stock has hit a low of $20.20 and a high of $20.96. GLW is now trading at 20.71, up 1.85 (9.93%).

After hitting a one year high of $29.61 in April, the stock has been sagging over the past few months. This morning's earnings report blew estimates away and is sending the stock way up in early trading. The technicals for GLW have been slightly improving lately and S&P gives the stock a solid 4 STAR accumulate rating.

If you're looking for a hedged play on GLW, consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range.

Vic Schiller is an analyst on the move at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Schiller owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.