Elbit Systems and Bill Belichick: Both guilty of espionage

Filed under: Scandals, Israel

With former Miami Dolphins coach Don Shula, re-visiting the New England Patriots spying scandal and bringing up the issue whether an asterisk should be added if they successfully run the table and go undefeated, I found it interesting that a very successful Israeli defense company's subsidiary was also found guilty of espionage.The Patriots were guilty of spying against the NY Jets and having seen the Jets play, I can't imagine that the spying made any difference whatsoever. The same can't be said of Elbit Systems (NASDAQ: ESLT) subsidiary Kollsman Inc.

Kollsman Inc., was found guilty of misappropriation of trade secrets relating to commercial air data computers. The jury ruled in favor of the plaintiff Innovative Solutions & Support Inc. (NASDAQ: ISSC) and found that IS&S had suffered damages of just over $4.4 million in lost profits and $1.6 million in defendants' net profits, for a total of over $6 million. The verdict also opens up the possibility of imposition of exemplary damages and other costs against the defendants based on willful conduct.

Continue reading Elbit Systems and Bill Belichick: Both guilty of espionage

Analyst inititations: FREE, NKTR, ALTU and ABH

Filed under: Analyst reports, Under Armour'A' (UA), Analyst initiations, PetroChina Co Ltd ADR (PTR)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: FreeSeas, Nektar, Altus Pharmaceuticals and AbitibiBowater were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Cantor initiated shares of FreeSeas (NASDAQ: FREE) with a Buy rating and $10 target, as they expect the company to benefit from the continued strength in the dry bulk market.
  • JP Morgan resumed coverage of Nektar (NASDAQ: NKTR) with an Overweight rating, as they view weakness from the discontinuation of Exubera as a buying opportunity given the company's base royalty business and pipeline opportunities.
  • Altus Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ALTU) was initiated with a Buy rating and $19 target at Jefferies. The firm expects news flow from the company's two lead products over the next 6-12 months that should act as catalysts.
  • AbitibiBowater (NYSE: ABH) was initiated with a Sell rating and $18 target at Banc of America, as they are cautious on newsprint trends; the firm recommends reducing existing positions.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
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Microsoft's Ballmer: we'll pour more cash into our online offerings

Filed under: Competitive strategy, Microsoft (MSFT)

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer told an audience yesterday that the world's largest software company won't stop supplying its online services with cash in light of continued losses from that business unit -- for fear of ceding the race to rivals. In other words, Microsoft won't close its billion-dollar checkbook and give the world of online advertising and services to Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG).

Is Microsoft this afraid of Google, or does it see a fundamental shift of services moving from the desktop software program Microsoft owns (like Microsoft Word) to web-based replacement services? Or, does Microsoft just want a larger piece of the advertising revenue from web search -- an area that Google dominates completely and where it has made all its money? It's a little bit of both.

Don't put anything past Microsoft, I say. The company in some ways looks like a laggard, but it has the cash (net of a tiny amount of debt) to do anything it wants. Google's cash pile is growing tall as well, so although the Microsoft-Google debate will rage on, both companies will continue sparring inside the field of internet advertising. Both have the fortitude and cash to square off for a long, long time. Ballmer is no wimp by any means, and in 10 years we could have an internet ruled by both companies if this punch-counterpunch competitive strategy continues as it has. Someone call Evander Holyfield and Mike Tyson, please.

General Electric (GE) falls after upping pensions

Filed under: General Electric (GE), Employees, Options, Technical Analysis

GE logoGeneral Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) announced on Thursday evening that it would raise the pensions of more than 130,000 retired employees on December 1, with individual pensions rising by as much as 10 to 20 percent. A spokesperson estimated the total cost of this raise to be "hundreds of millions of dollars," but added that the increase has already been accounted for in GE's earnings. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on GE.

After hitting a one-year low of $33.90 in March, the stock hit a one-year high of $42.15 in October. This morning, GE opened at $38.52. So far today the stock has hit a low of $38.25 and a high of $38.75. As of 11:05, GE is trading at $38.33, down 69 cents(-1.8%). The chart for GE looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bear-call credit spread above the $42.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make a 12.6% return in less than 3 months as long as GE is below $42.50 at January expiration. General Electric would have to rise by more than 11% before we would start to lose money.

GE hasn't been above $42.50 since 2001 and has shown resistance around $41 recently. This trade could be risky if the expected economic downturn doesn't materialize, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by strong resistance GE formed around $42, where the stock topped in October.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in GE.
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IAC planning a comedy news website called 23/6

Filed under: Products and services, Launches, IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI)

InterActive Corp. (NYSE: IACI) seems to be following the herd with this week's announcement of a comedy news channel that sounds very similar to Comedy Central's The Daily Show and The Colbert Report. The new IAC property, titled 23/6, will partner with liberal political site the Huffington Post and will be in full comedic charge of satirizing the news with humor interlaced throughout all moments.

Bloggers from the Huffington Post as well as comedy writers from The Daily Show and The Simpsons will be part of the cast, so expect some funny moments from the new network. 23/6 joins a growing roster of online and television networks and series dedicated to taking normal (and highly predictable) news and turning a spin on those stories to keep the bay of reality, well, away from the mind of the normal consumer. At least, that's my two cents here.

I especially like 23/6's planned "Monolog-o-tron," which will be an online tool for generating your own talk show using drop-down menus on a website. That's a shot at Letterman and Leno and my guess is that it won't be the last one taken. With a whole new generation taking to the web for news and satire instead of played late-night shows, this could very well be another great hit for Barry Diller's IAC.

Media World: Is the media to blame for the housing crisis?

Filed under: Marketing and advertising, Toll Brothers (TOL), Economic data, Media World

Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOLL) logoForget crooked mortgage companies. Forget greedy speculators. Forget lax credit ratings agencies. The real reason for the housing crisis is the media.

Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) Chief Executive Robert Toll seems to think that the housing crisis would improve if the media didn't write about it so much.

"Perhaps as the presidential campaign heats up and moves to the front page, negative articles about housing will move off the front page," the New York Times quotes Toll as saying.. "Then, hopefully, the positive underpinnings of low interest rates, low unemployment and a decent economy will raise new-home-buyer confidence."

Fat chance of that happening.

Continue reading Media World: Is the media to blame for the housing crisis?

Under Armour (UA) insiders trim positions

Filed under: Bad news, Insiders, Under Armour'A' (UA), Options, Technical Analysis

UA logoUnder Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA) has been falling for the past week after disclosures of insider trading. Chairman and CEO Kevin Plan sold 1.5 million shares last week for almost $90 million. Two of Under Armour's senior vice presidents, Kip Fulks and Scott Plank, also sold 15,000 shares and 850,000 shares respectively last week. Total insider sales over the past month have reached $130.6 M. The insider sell-off causes concern for shareholders despite UA's positive earnings report last month. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on UA.

After hitting a one-year high of $73.40 in August, the stock has declined over the past three months. This morning, UA opened at $48.20. So far today the stock has hit a low of $45.00 and a high of $48.20. As of 11:15, UA is trading at $46.78, down $1.82 (-3.7%). The chart for UA looks are bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bear-call credit spread above the $65 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make a 4.2% return in less than 3 months as long as UA is below $65 at January expiration. Under Armour would have to rise by more than 49% before we would start to lose money.

UA has never been above $65 for more than a few days at a time and has shown resistance around $60 recently. This trade could be risky if the holiday season turns out to be a big one for retail, but that looks to be an overly optimistic view at this point. Plus, this position could be protected by strong resistance UA has formed around $64, where the stock topped in late October.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in UA.
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CNET gets a piece of LookSmart

Filed under: Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), LookSmart Ltd (LOOK)

The performance at LookSmart (NASDAQ: LOOK) hasn't been too smart over the years. Even though the company is in the red-hot online advertising sector, it still can't seem to get an edge against Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO), and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).

For example, in yesterday's Q3 report, LookSmart posted a meager 4% increase in revenues to $12.6 million. There was also a GAAP net loss of $4.3 million, or $0.19 per share.

So, to get things on track, LookSmart is rationalizing things. That is, the company announced it has sold its FindArticles.com division to CNET (NASDAQ: CNET) for $20.1 million in cash.

FindArticles.com is a niche asset, with an archive of 11 million articles from more than 3,000 sources. And, for the most part, it looks like a fit for CNET. Expect other content deals from the company.

However, as for LookSmart, it still has a lot of challenges. The company slashed 25% of its workforce and isn't providing any revenue guidance. In other words, things are going to remain cloudy for some time.

Finally, visit DealProfiles.com to check out other recent M&A activity.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

Toll Bros. (TOL) CEO blames media for housing problems

Filed under: Earnings reports, Bad news, Toll Brothers (TOL), Options, Technical Analysis, Housing

TOL logoToll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) announced yesterday that it expects a 36% drop in quarterly home-building revenue this quarter, adding that net new home orders fell more steeply than in prior quarters. CEO Robert I. Toll blamed the poor numbers on the media's focus on the slumping housing market, which he says overshadowed "the positive underpinnings of low interest rates, low unemployment and a decent economy," which could eventually boost home-buyer confidence. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on TOL.

After hitting a one-year high of $35.64 in February, the stock hit a one-year low of 18.85 in August. This morning, TOL opened at $20.35. So far today the stock has hit a low of $20.11 and a high of $20.70. As of 10:55, TOL is trading at $20.44, down 45 cents (-2.1%). The chart for TOL looks neutral and deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bear-call credit spread above the $25 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make a 4.2% return in 6 weeks as long as TOL is below $25 at December expiration. Toll would have to rise by more than 22% before we would start to lose money.

TOL hasn't been above $25 since July and has shown resistance around $23.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the Fed cuts cause the housing market to bounce back quickly, but with the company itself trying to shift blame and prepare investors for the worst, it looks like an immediate recovery is probably a long shot.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
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Walt Disney earnings not goofy at all

Filed under: Earnings reports, Television, Walt Disney (DIS), Media World

Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) reported fourth quarter and end of year earnings yesterday, and the year turned out to be a good one for the entertainment giant.

Its media networks segment operating income was up 23% from 2006 figures, to $4.3 billion. Cable networks, primarily ESPN and Disney, were up $3.6 billion on higher ad rates and subscriber growth. ABC Studios returns were up slightly for the year but down for the quarter, a result of greater sales of shows such as Desperate Housewives and ESPN's Monday Night Football, offset by a drop in syndication revenue.

Parks and Resorts operating income up 11% for the year, to $1.7 billion, and up for the quarter 9%. The only down note was a drop in attendance at Hong Kong Disneyland.

Continue reading Walt Disney earnings not goofy at all

Bank of America plans foray into IRA market

Filed under: Bank of America (BAC), Personal finance

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) has ambitious plans to become a leader provider of Individual Retirement Account services for Americans. On Sunday, the bank will launch a $35 million advertising campaign. Last year, all banks spent a total of just $11.6 million promoting retirement products, so this is a pretty serious investment.

Should investors be flocking to BofA? In an IRA, investors should look for an easy to understand structure, low fees, diversification, and "no hidden charges". If Bank of America runs its IRA program anything like it runs its checking accounts, putting your retirement planning with the company would be a horrible idea.

The company uses a variety of what I would argue are schemes to extract overdraft fees from its customers -- the "largest check first" policy being the most infamous. I know people who have rung up more than a hundred dollars in overdraft charges on purchases totaling less than $20.

Bank of America has an emphasis on sales rather than fiduciary responsibility to the client . They're there to sell you stuff, not help you out. For all the evidence you need of this, check out their ad for a "Personal Banker Associate" on Monster.com. What are they looking for in the way of experience? Heading the list is Retail/Sales Experience. Not financial acumen-- that's number 6 on the list, 3 behind "customer service orientation" and an ability to "motivate and influence others". How wonderfully Machiavellian! You will influence them to open a ROTH IRA, and that's more important than an understanding of finance that might inspire you to know what kind of account is best.

Maybe Bank of America has made some serious changes to their culture -- but I seriously doubt it, and I'll be staying far, far, away from their IRAs.

Nasdaq weakness: A warning sign for emerging markets?

Filed under: International markets, Earnings reports, Cisco Systems (CSCO), China, Brazil, Russia, Indices, Market matters, Money and Finance Today, QUALCOMM Inc (QCOM), Technical Analysis, Commodities

No small number of analysts have noted a rising correlation between some of the more speculative asset classes, including foreign currencies, gold, oil and other commodities, and certain sectors of the global equity markets.

As far as stocks go, however, one relationship may be worth paying special attention to. That is, the apparent link between the technology-laden Nasdaq-100 index -- which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the Powershares QQQ Trust ETF (AMEX: QQQQ) -- and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which also has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (AMEX: EEM).

Continue reading Nasdaq weakness: A warning sign for emerging markets?

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Leap-ing off a cliff: Leap Wireless shares plunge 34%

Filed under: AT and T (T), Verizon Communications (VZ)

Last week, MetroPCS Communications (NYSE: PCS) ended its $4 billion merger deal for Leap Wireless (NASDAQ: LEAP), which thought the deal wasn't good enough. Both companies provide wireless services to those that the major carriers -- like Verizon (NYSE: VZ) and AT&T (NYSE: T) -- tend to avoid (such as low-income customers).

Well, LEAP shareholders may be regretting things. On the company's latest news bomb, the stock has plunged 34% to $38.33. In fact, since late July, the stock is down a stunning 61%.

First of all, LEAP said it will have to restate financial results for 2004, 2005, 2006 and the first half of 2007. The items include service revenues, operating expenses and so on. The amount is about $20 million or so.

Not so big, huh? Maybe not. After all, the company could be in default on its $890 million of debt.

Oh, and the company garnered only 36,500 subscribers in Q3 (the goal was 40,000). And, it looks like Q4 growth will be meager too.

All in all, it's hard to find anything good here. Then again, Leap's space is full of buyout activity so I wouldn't be surprised if we eventually hear some more buyout buzz on the company, especially in light of the big cut in the valuation.

PCS shares are tumbling over 20% as well today.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

StockWatch: Between the Bells with Timothy Sykes

Filed under: Google (GOOG), Yahoo! (YHOO), EMC Corp (EMC), Stocks to Buy, Stocks to Sell, Videos

We've pinned down the ever-dancing Wall Street Warrior Timothy Sykes for another StockWatch: Between the Bells segment! In this edition, the author of An American Hedge Fund: How I Made $2 Million as a Stock Operator & Created a Hedge Fund cautions you to revise your strategy for the developing bear market. "It is not the time to be aggressive, it is the time to be conservative," says Tim.

Continue reading StockWatch: Between the Bells with Timothy Sykes

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When will the market plunge end?

Filed under: Wachovia Corp (WB), Barclays plc ADS (BCS)

Watching this week's stock market action -- with the Dow dropping several hundred points each day -- a simple question comes to mind: When will it end? I don't know when, but I have an idea why. I think the plunge will end when investors know how much of their capital the world's banks will need to wipe out to clear the bad loans off their books.

Today's TheStreet.com reports that Wachovia (NYSE: WB) announced a $1.1 billion write-down and Barclay's (NYSE: BCS) denied a rumor of a $10 billion write-down. The recent pattern has been for banks to announce a big write-down, and then a few weeks later announce a much bigger one. This pattern of gut-wrenching, unpleasant surprises, cost Stanley O'Neal and Chuck Prince their high paying -- but stressful -- jobs.

What's become painfully clear is that there is nobody in government or business who has a handle on the big picture. At the core of the problem is the hundreds of billions of asset-backed securities whose value is grossly overstated on the books of banks, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds and other institutional investors around the world.

Until there is an accurate and comprehensive accounting of these write-downs -- Bloomberg News reports of an analyst who estimated the figure at $500 billion -- investors will have cause for concern. And nobody is offering a credible time frame for when that day will arrive.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Marvel Entertainment (MVL): Owning the rights to cultural icons means Super business

Filed under: Earnings reports, Walt Disney (DIS), Mattel, Inc (MAT), Technical Analysis, Stocks to Buy

Ownership of the rights to a cultural icon equals promotion. It's a simple equation found in any basic text on marketing. Ownership of the rights to several icons equals big business is a corollary that has been successfully applied by an outfit headquartered in New York.

Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) is engaged in the marketing of a library of some 5,000 fictional characters, including Spider-Man, The Incredible Hulk, Captain America, The Fantastic Four and X-Men. The firm's Licensing segment sells the rights to use the characters in marketing toys, apparel, video games and films. The Publishing division sells character-based comic books to the mass market. The Toys unit develops and markets character-based toys. The Film Production segment produces and distributes character-based films. Mattel (NYSE: MAT) and Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) are competitors.

Continue reading Marvel Entertainment (MVL): Owning the rights to cultural icons means Super business

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Wal-Mart Q3 earnings preview

Filed under: Earnings reports, Deals, Wal-Mart (WMT)

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) showed up for October same-store sales with a weal report card, posting a virtual flat growth of 0.4% against expectations of 1.1%. Meanwhile, Target (NYSE: TGT) surprised many by posting a increase of 4.1% in same-store sales during the same period.

The question, then, is this: what will Wal-Mart's quarterly results hold next week then the giant reports? Estimates are holding tight at $0.68 EPS, which would represent a 9.33% growth rate from the year-ago quarter. Will that be enough to satisfy the retailer's naysayers if the company can meet it? Hard to tell; the market is anything but logical some weeks (or months). Depends if the full moon is out.

The home furnishings and apparel businesses at the world's largest retailer continue to be a drag on performance, although re-tooling is in progress. That does not happen overnight, of course, so there are challenges in the next few quarters as Wal-Mart either gains a leg up somehow on the competition or settles into some odd comfort zone until mid-2008. Turning the Titanic around to avoid an iceberg is something that takes quite a bit of time, but investors are becoming impatient after half a decade of stock price stagnation.

Top resource ideas: 20 advisors on metals, mining, and money

Filed under: International markets, Products and services, Industry, Commodities, Stocks to Buy

Gold and silverWhat are the best speculations and investments among metals, miners, and other resource plays? To find out, I turned to 20 of the nation's leading newsletter editors, as well as speakers from the recent New Orleans Conference, a leading forum for resource advisors.

Their current top ideas cover a wide diversity of ideas, from gold and silver, from alumina and copper, to platinum and palladium. These picks cover markets from Chile to China and from Canada to Russia. These ideas also range from large cap, well-established, and diversified companies to small cap, development-stage junior speculations.

Readers should only consider these ideas as a starting place for their own research and should keep in mind the caveat that any stock you buy should only be considered within the framework of your own time horizon and risk parameters. Meanwhile, here are 20 different advisors assessing various aspects of the metals, mining, and resources sectors:

Continue reading Top resource ideas: 20 advisors on metals, mining, and money

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Charles River Labs (CRL) stock forms bullish 'pennant'

Filed under: Earnings reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Technical Analysis, Stocks to Buy

Outsourcing helps biomedical firms initiate more drug candidates and move them through the pipeline faster, while controling development costs. A recognized source of the assistance needed to smooth the process is headquartered Wilmington, Massachusetts.

Charles River Laboratories International (NYSE: CRL) offers products and services required by pharmaceutical and biotechnical research organizations. Its Research Models and Services unit provides the purpose-bred rodents used in the development of new drugs, devices and therapies. The unit also offers vaccine support and in vitro technology products for testing of medical devices and injectable drugs. The Preclinical Services segment conducts a variety of research programs, including Phase I trials. The company operates from facilities in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom.

Continue reading Charles River Labs (CRL) stock forms bullish 'pennant'

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Market highlights for next week: Tyson (TSN), Wal-Mart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) to report

Filed under: Earnings reports, Forecasts, Law, Conventions and conferences, Annual meetings, Wal-Mart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW), Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI), Tyson Foods'A' (TSN), Economic data

Monday, November 12
  • Veterans' Day holiday.
  • Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) to report Q4 earnings. They are holding a conference call at 9am and a business update later at 10:45am.
Tuesday, November 13
  • Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) to report Q3 earnings; pre-recorded conference call at 7am.
  • Home Depot (NYSE: HD) to report Q3 earnings; conference call at 9am.
  • Fed Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner is the Keynote Speaker at Standard & Poor's Banking Conference in New York at 1pm.
Wednesday, November 14
  • Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is the Keynote Speaker at Cato Institute Annual Monetary Conference at 9:10am.
  • Macy's (NYSE: M) to report Q3 earnings; conference call at 10:30am.
Thursday, November 15
Friday, November 16
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Top resource ideas: 'Does gold know something we don't?'

Filed under: Newsletters, Canada, Commodities, Stocks to Buy

This article is part of a special 20 article report on "Metals, miners and money".

"It wasn't that long ago -- in late 2003, to be exact -- when we were bumping up against the $400 ceiling in gold; and now we've barreled through $800," says Brien Lundin, editor of The Gold Newsletter, and host and opening speaker at the recent New Orleans Investment Conference.

Although he remains cautious on the near-term outlook -- and indeed, forecasts a correction from current levels -- he suggests, "Perhaps the reasons behind gold's rally don't matter -- and we need only consider the fact that it is rallying."

From a long-term perspective, he suggests, "The very fact that gold is rallying so strongly is telling us something about the geopolitical, economic, and/or investing scene. Does gold know something we don't?"

The gold and resource investing expert suggests, "Perhaps it's telling us that global liquidity is far deeper than we can yet understand. Maybe it's telling us that the worldwide move away from the dollar as a reserve currency is accelerating behind the scenes.

"Perhaps it's indicating that economic growth in Asia will continue, and is capable of thriving without the support of Western consumer demand.... Maybe gold is foreshadowing a geopolitical blow-up.

"Perhaps the metal is whispering that the housing crunch, with peaks in adjustable rate mortgage resets coming at the end of the year, will become worse than anyone yet fears. Or perhaps that there is some still unseen derivative or other economic crisis about to erupt.

Continue reading Top resource ideas: 'Does gold know something we don't?'

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The bull market rests on two groups

Filed under: Indices, Market matters, Money and Finance Today, Technical Analysis, S and P 500

Although the S&P 500 index is down more than 3% so far this week, the benchmark measure remains up over 3% for the year.

When it comes to the equity market's bullish underpinnings, however, support not been evenly distributed. For the most part, the load has been carried by two groups: energy and information technology.

In fact, based on the latest data, one could say those two sectors account for all of the move -- and then some.

The S&P energy sector -- which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (AMEX: XLE) -- is up 25.24% year-to-date, which equals 37.29 index points, while the information technology group -- which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (AMEX: XLK) -- has gained 12.52%, equivalent to 44.59 index points.

When you add the two together, it works out to nearly 150% of the overall increase in the S&P 500.

While the news in itself is not necessarily a cause for concern, it's probably worth keeping an eye on energy and information technology shares to get some idea of where the market may be headed next.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.

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Flash: Dow falls 225 points, Nasdaq off 2.5%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 225 points to 13,042. The Nasdaq fell just over 2.5% to 2,628.

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) fell almost 6% to just over $165. Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) was down over 9% to just over $113. Motorola (NYSE: MOT) was off 3% to $16.48.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Option update 11-9-07: Citigroup and IBM Volatility Up on sell off

Filed under: Cisco Systems (CSCO), International Business Machines (IBM), Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Compuware Corp (CPWR), Morgan Stanley (MS), Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF), Options

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) volatility at nine-year highs on chatter of potential spin-offs:

Investor unhappiness with Citigroup's recent sell off has resulted in a larger chorus for Citigroup to consider spin-off options. Citigroup's Smith Barney unit has been frequently mentioned as a potential spin-off. Telegraph.co.uk said "banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), HSBC Holdings plc (ADR) (NYSE: HBC), and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) are being touted as possible buyers if Citigroup's management decides to offload assets." Citigroup was recently up 15 cents to $33.03. Citigroup call option volume of 135,047 contracts compares to put volume of 101,613 contracts. Citigroup November 32.5 straddle is priced at $2.55. Citigroup December option implied volatility of 56 is above its 26-week average of 29 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

International Business Machines Corp (NYSE: IBM) volatility elevated after Sharp two-day sell off after Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) outlook:

IBM was recently down $4.83 to $101.27. IBM call option volume of 20,665 contracts compared to put volume of 25,200 contracts. IBM November 100 straddle was priced at $4.90. IBM December option implied volatility of 33 was above its 26-week average of 24 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

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Con artists prey on troubled homeowners

Filed under: Newspapers, Scandals, Housing

I don't know if there's a god or a heaven -- but the people who perpetrate these scams are going to hell.

The USA Today reports on the growing number of "foreclosure rescue" scams that rip off homeowners on the brink of foreclosure. Some of these companies operate simple advance-fee scams -- they send homeowners letters promising to help them negotiate with their lender for an up-front fee of a thousand dollars or less. And then that's that. Other schemes are more complex but they all follow the same basic formula: take advantage of the desperation of people who are about to lose their homes.

The Better Business Bureau is receiving tons of complaints, and state attorney generals are filing lawsuits. But with a fast-growing industry like this, consumers probably have to protect themselves. Here is a resource to help: The Housing and Urban Development department has a list of mortgage counselors that have its blessing. You can search by state here.

Your best bet is probably one of the many non-profit counseling agencies, whose employees are working tirelessly for low wages in an effort to help people.

One of the biggest mistakes that got people into toxic mortgages was that they went with private subprime lenders, unaware of the government programs designed to help first-time home buyers. Now, people can avoid compounding the problem by picking a non-profit counselor.

Kohl's to go for 'green' certification in over 80 locations

Filed under: Competitive strategy, Kohl's Corp (KSS)

Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) said this week that it will be "certifying" more than 80 if its retail locations in 28 states under a program that recognizes building design as environmentally sound. In other words, Kohl's is becoming green, at least environmentally speaking.

Beginning a year from now, Kohl's will open the first of its stores that will be certified under the U.S. Green Building Council's LEED program, or Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design. From late in 2008 to 2009, the company will be opening new locations that conform to LEED standards for environmental sustainability. This will give Kohl's a leg up as one of the very first retailers to adopt LEED standards in the field of retail. The standards are no joke: site planning, water management, energy use, material use, air quality and innovation in the design process for overall conservation.

Companies that are loathe to go green should take Kohl's under review as a case study. Not only does going green (under a national certified process, no less) buy a huge amount of PR with an eco-conscious buying public, but the hard costs that can be saved (and gasp, be measured too!) add up to a win-win for everyone. I'd expect more retailers to be trumpeting green initiatives in the near future, and especially with new locations where implementations are far easier than with existing retail location designs.

Google (GOOG) down 10% in a week - why?

Filed under: Major movement, Rants and raves, Google (GOOG), Economic data

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) logo During previous recent market downturns Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) has held up well. This past week the NASDAQ stocks have been retracing their steps, giving back a sizable portion of their recent gains. Google, though, has been giving back more than most over the past two days, slipping about 10% off its high.

There could be any number of reasons. Dubious earnings reports from other tech companies might be the culprit. Or it could be the news that AOL is buying Quigo, giving the appearance of some vulnerability. To me, that does not seem like it would be a major factor either. There is plenty of dour economic news at the moment, but that hits everyone. Google established a recent new all-time high of $747.24, but is trading around $671 now and has traded down as low as $663. (UPDATE: GOOG closed at $663.97 on Friday.)

Every indication is that Google is not that expensive compared to other rivals. Until I hear some negative news that is specific to Google, I think a large portion of this drop can simply be attributed to profit taking. There is plenty of juggling going on in the fund market this time of year. Have you been re-balancing your portfolio? Have you been taking profits? Is there some other reason for the sell-off? Where might Google land? Is this a buying opportunity, or if not, at what price do the Google bulls stop the slide? Some say short the stock, maybe, and maybe you get creamed -- that I would not do unless you have really deep pockets.

To find potential opportunities and verify my track record, read Chasing Value or Serious Money.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Top resource ideas: Junior miners from Doug Casey

Filed under: Newsletters, Canada, Commodities, Stocks to Buy

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

"If you are relying on traditional investments to pad your nest for the future, the problems stalking the world economy should be a matter of serious concern," cautions Doug Casey, editor of The International Speculator.

"The $2 trillion or so loss in stock market valuations during the August correction is a precursor of what's to come ... in a best case. The worse case is ... much, much worse.

"Which brings me to the opportunity that the crisis is carrying on its back. For any number of reasons, but first and foremost its use as money in all the world's cultures, throughout all recorded history, gold has begun to find renewed favor with in-the-know investors as the currency of last resort.

"Make no mistake, despite gold's rise from its $255 low in April of 2001 to over $800 as I write, so far, only the thinnest of trickles, a minor fraction of global capital, has made it into gold. When the flight to safety really heats up, the price of gold won't just add dollars, it will add digits.

"If that sounds like hyperbole, remember that, unlike the U.S. dollar, which can be created at the speed of light, the available supply of gold is finite and is painfully slow to change.

Continue reading Top resource ideas: Junior miners from Doug Casey

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The Wal-Mart Weekly: Customer communication is key

Filed under: Wal-Mart (WMT), Columns

Welcome to the 36th installment of The Wal-Mart Weekly, a column dedicated to bringing you insight, wit, facts, results, opinions and just a bit of everything else when it comes down to a very hot topic these days: Wal-Mart.

Last week, I looked at the China supplier situation with Wal-Mart insofar as how the retailer is even squeezing the cost penny pinchers in China too far. The gist was this: Several major Chinese-based good suppliers seem to believe that they cannot make enough profit due to Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) constantly lowering prices.

The retailer lowered price on over 15,000 items to kick off the holiday shopping season just recently, and that probably was the sign on the wall in China. As in, "speak up now or forever hold your peace." When Chinese suppliers start nagging the world's largest retailer to either keep prices steady or, gasp, to actually raise some prices a bit, the writing is on the wall. Wal-Mart's "always low prices" may start to mean "way too low prices" -- well, you get the idea.

This week, I'll be looking at the communication chain Wal-Mart has when it comes to communication highly time-sensitive information to store managers, regions and even consumers. And, I have a great example of this process from just this week. Read on.

Continue reading The Wal-Mart Weekly: Customer communication is key

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Oil prices creep slightly higher to end week

Filed under: International markets, Forecasts, Products and services, Consumer experience, Economic data, Oil, Federal Reserve

After pulling back yesterday, oil prices once again moved a bit higher today to close out the week as supply concerns continue to weigh on the mind of traders.

Earlier this week it looked as though we may be seeing $100 oil this week, but that was just not meant to be, not yet at least. On Wednesday, prices hit a high of $98.62 before trading lower in the afternoon session on a slightly bullish inventory report from the Energy Department.

Then yesterday prices pulled back after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the economy is in danger of economic slowdown in the months to come. Pointing to the current housing slump, Bernanke said that we can expect to see business growth slow considerably in the upcoming months, but would not indicate whether or not we should plan on seeing a rate cut during the next Fed meeting.

Today, prices rebounded on news that there were two shutdowns in the North Sea that once again stoked fears of a supply crunch. Prices rose as high as $96.68 before selling off a bit to $96.20, up $0.74 or 0.76% on the day.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.
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Top resource ideas: 'Vital' advice on Alumina (AWC)

Filed under: Newsletters, Commodities, Stocks to Buy

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

"We've added a high potential acquisition play to our model portfolio, Alumina Ltd. (NYSE: AWC)," note Elliott Gue and Yiannis Mostrous in their Vital Resource Investor.

The advisors explain, "The company is a leveraged bet on the recovery of aluminum prices in the next few quarters as China rationalizes output and exports by taking its high cost, heavily subsidized producers out of the game. Its small size and 40% stake in the world's largest low-cost portfolio of quality bauxite and alumina assets is a tempting target.

"Having the world's largest integrated bauxite mining and alumina refining system (it provides approximately 13% of the world's alumina supply) in one place is the company's main attraction. As energy, raw materials, and freight costs continue to increase, Alumina's setup enables its operations to be extremely efficient and low cost.

"The company is at a sweet spot because China's aluminum demand has been so strong that it's taken the industry by surprise. Although a large number of experts were at the start of the year forecasting 14% growth of China's aluminum demand for 2007, the latest projections (as per Alcoa's calculations) are pointing toward 35% growth.

"Further, China has a long way to go before it reaches the levels of consumption that more mature economies have achieved. And although it won't happen in one go, it will be a long and steady process. The bottom line: To meet this demand as well as demand from other countries like rapidly urbanizing rural India, aluminum production will have to grow much more rapidly than at any time in history."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com website features the latest investment commentary and favorite stock picks of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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IPO takes Visa: Charge card leader could raise $10 billion

Filed under: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), MasterCard Inc'A' (MA), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Initial public offerings

Visa IPO Visa is the biggest retail electronic payments network (the cards are accepted in over 170 countries), and its brand is one of the world's most recognized. Now, investors will get a chance to buy shares in the company.

Late Friday, the company filed the necessary papers for an IPO. And it should be a doozy, perhaps raising more than $10 billion.

Visa gets revenues from card service fees, data processing fees, and international transaction fees. And it all certainly adds up. For the first nine months of 2007, Visa generated revenues of $3.7 billion and net income of $771 million.

Of course, in May of last year, rival MasterCard (NYSE: MA) went public. So far, it is up a sizzling 390%. So, expect investors to pile on the Visa deal.

Visa's lead underwriters include JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS).

You can visit the SEC website for the prospectus. Also, you can check out other recent IPO activity at DealProfiles.com.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

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Trans World CEO makes an offer for the company -- is it fair?

Filed under: Deals

Shares of Trans World Entertainment Corporation (NASDAQ: TWMC) were up big today for the first time in a long time. CEO Robert Higgins handed the company's board a "preliminary proposal" seeking to take the company private for $5 per share in cash. Mr. Higgins already controls about 40% of the company's stock, and the board is evaluating the offer. The stock soared more than 27% to close at $4.96 -- so close to the "preliminary proposal" that it indicates that investors expect that the company could well sell for a higher price.

Here's what makes this interesting. According to the company's latest proxy statement, Mr. Higgins has been CEO for a little more than 5 years, although he founded the company more than 30 years ago. The chart at right shows how the stock has performed during that period. In early 2005, shares of Trans World were trading well over $14 per share -- Mr. Higgins' offer is for just over a third of that.

What has happened since then? Trans World is in the CD and DVD business, with stores including Fye, Strawberries, Sam Goody, and Suncoast -- some of the company's brands were acquired by the company out of bankruptcy. Of course, the internet has made those industries sluggish at best, and declining same store sales and profitability have sent the stock tumbling.

Does Higgins deserve all the blame for the company's woes? Of course not. But as an executive in the industry, he should have seen the changes coming and made adjustments. He didn't, and now he is looking to take the company private at a firesale price, way below the company's book value.

To some, this may be akin to hiring a carpenter to renovate your house, watching him trash it, and then receiving an offer from him to buy it -- at a small fraction of its value before he went to work.

Serious Money: This is my type of market -- watch list ready!

Filed under: After the bell, Other issues, Deals, Competitive strategy, Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Nucor Corp (NUE), Reliance Steel and Aluminum (RS), Valero Energy (VLO), Huaneng Power Intl ADS (HNP), Bargain stocks, Serious Money, Anglo Amer ADR (AAUK), Aluminum Corp of China ADS (ACH), Stocks to Buy, Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG), General Dynamics Corp (GD)

Shopping ListYou all can worry about whatever you want to worry about. You can follow the bulls or bears, day traders or CD holders, Wall Street pundits or the guy next door, it does not matter to me. I am looking for opportunity in the rubble.

If you are a true investor, you have a watch list -- when there is fear and negativity in the market like there has been the past few days, there will be opportunities. It is not a time to jump in with both feet, and it is not a time to speculate. It is a time to pick and choose among the companies and stocks you know well.

I would like to own more Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) but it has run up so fast it has escaped my grasp, although I sense an opportunity is in the wings. I would like to own more Anglo American PLC (NYSE: AAUK) but it jumped up after recent acquisition talks in the mining industry and has not settled down yet. And it may not, but I will be patient. My regular readers know I love Huaneng Power Intl ADS (NYSE: HNP), which hardly moved today but has come down significantly in the past week, and that is very, very tempting.

Continue reading Serious Money: This is my type of market -- watch list ready!

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E*Trade (ETFC) latest to be rocked by mortgage securities

Even the discount brokers are not safe. After write-downs from mortgage-related securities burned a brush fire through commercial and investment bank balance sheets, they hit E*Trade (NASDAQ:ETFC) yesterday. Shares in the broker dropped as much as 14% after hours, and fell through the company's 52-week low of $8.02. The stock has lost two-thirds of its value since June.

The Wall Street Journal wrote that "the discount online brokerage said its total exposure to collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities and second-lien securities at Sept. 30 was about $450 million, including about $50 million of "AAA" rated asset-backed collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, that were downgraded to junk status." This will lead to write-downs in the fourth quarter. The company also suspended its guidance.

The announcement raises that question of just how many financial institutions may have mortgage-securities related problems. It has been fair easy to see why commercial and investment banking houses would face the issues, They invest in pools of securities as a matter of course.

It is still not clear whether other discount brokers could face write-down of this magnitude.

But, with a new piece of bad news related to the mortgage market meltdown coming out almost daily, who would be surprised?

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Top resource ideas: ASA Ltd. (ASA) offers gold at a discount

Filed under: Newsletters, Commodities, Stocks to Buy

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

In his Commodity Trend Alert, Eric Roseman believes a short-term correction is "highly likely." But the resource expert still considers ASA Limited (NYSE: ASA) a "terrific bargain."

He explains, "For value investors, a great buying opportunity in commodities looms this fall. The fundamentals for commodities remain extremely bullish as we progress into 2008. A weaker U.S. dollar, lower interest rates, and supply deficits across a spectrum of raw materials promises to snowball into another formidable rally for commodities."

However, he cautions, this buying opportunity will come after a "period of digestion." He observes, "Commodities indices have come a long way over the last two months following the mid-August market low. Heavy investor speculation in many raw materials -- namely oil, gold, and wheat -- implies a short-term correction is highly likely."

The advisor notes, "Banks, hedge funds, individual investors, and sovereign wealth funds are all on the same side of the dollar bear market ship; historically, too many bears on the same side of a trade means someone will lose their shirt -- and soon."

Continue reading Top resource ideas: ASA Ltd. (ASA) offers gold at a discount

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Top resource ideas: Bet on Buenaventura (BVN)

Filed under: Newsletters, Commodities, Stocks to Buy

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

"Although gold is probably due to retrace some, bullion still looks very strong," says Jack Adamo's Insiders Plus. Here, he looks at Compania de Minas Buenaventura (NYSE: BVN).

"Open interest in gold futures, which measures the current size of bets made by futures traders, is 34% lower than it was in May of 2006, which was the last time we touched a speculative price peak. That suggests that much of this crowd is still on the sidelines. When they come rushing back in, the stocks can move up very fast."

The advisor continues, "The cheapest by far of all our gold stocks is still Compania de Minas Buenaventura. Even being up 53% year-to-date, it's selling at 15-times this year's expected earnings, with year end only three months away. It's unlikely earnings will miss expectations this late in the year.

"Of course, expectations a year out are much less reliable, but if current analysts' estimates are close, the stock is a screaming bargain. With '08 estimates of $3.59 a share, the stock is selling at 11-times next year's earnings, and has an earnings growth rate of 37%. Price/earnings-to-growth ratios like that make me salivate.

"If you've not filled your gold positions, here's your chance. I don't expect another opportunity for at least four months. Gold is usually strong going into the holiday season, and sometimes all the way into January. Buy Buenaventura."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com website features the latest investment commentary and favorite stock picks of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Comfort Zone Investing: Can the banks get any worse?

Filed under: CIT Group (CIT), Merrill Lynch (MER), Comfort Zone Investing

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

Banks are suffering some tough headlines. Citicorp (NYSE:C) is leading the way with its recently announced $11 billion write off from bad loans on sub-prime mortgages (is there no end to these things?). The week before, Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) told of its $8 billion write-off, up from $5 billion the previous weeks. Both chairmen lost their jobs. (Don't feel too bad. The head of Merrill walked away with a $160 million deal to salve his wounds.) Is the worst over or is there more trouble for banks and other financial institutions?

It can get worse, especially when it comes to sub-prime mortgage loans. The problem most investors have is finding out which institutions have these loans and which don't, as well as how deep the problem is for any individual bank. No management is going to admit to the worst case unless it has to. It will give ball park figures until earnings are released. Then the real numbers are told. Lately there have been many surprises, but not the kind that are good.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Can the banks get any worse?

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Is your life insurance policy at subprime risk?

Banks aren't the only financial institutions at risk due to their holdings of asset-backed securities (ABSs) -- which totaled $1.23 trillion in 2006. Life insurance companies -- which accept premiums in exchange for paying your heirs when you die or paying you a pension when you retire use the premiums to buy investments so when it comes time for them to pay a claim, they'll have the money. Unfortunately, life insurers have invested some of that money in ABSs -- which are bundles of mortgages, credit card receivables, auto loans, and leveraged buyout loans.

How big is the ABS exposure of life insurers? According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, life insurance companies own $289 billion worth of commercial mortgages which back many of the ABSs. I've analyzed seven leading life insurers and found that they hold a total of $165 billion in such ABSs -- 162% of their equity capital of $102 billion.

If you do business with one of these companies, it might be worth trying to figure out whether they are able to protect your future benefits from the loss of value in these possibly shaky investments. In particular, these two companies have the most "dodgy" assets -- including ABSs and mortgages -- as a percentage of their equity:

Continue reading Is your life insurance policy at subprime risk?

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Top resource ideas: An ETF SPDR for hard assets

Filed under: Newsletters, Commodities, Stocks to Buy

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining (AMEX: XME), "a play on hard assets, has delivered impressive gains of 52% over the past 12 months," notes Paul Tracy who has added the ETF to the Sector Trading Portfolio of The ETF Authority.

The advisor explains, "While investors shouldn't grow accustomed to red-hot annual gains of 50%, this ETF is an ideal way to gain exposure to this sector." Here is his review.

"XME has been in the right place at the right time. The ETF mirrors the S&P Metals & Mining and invests in hard assets like precious metals (gold), industrial metals (copper, aluminum), steel, and coal.

"According to studies conducted by research firm Ibbotson, this group has a very low correlation with other traditional asset classes, and a modest stake can boost long-term returns with negligible additional risk -- and that has certainly been the case lately.

Continue reading Top resource ideas: An ETF SPDR for hard assets

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